The population-level impact of introducing rapid diagnostic tests on syphilis transmission in Canadian arctic communities – a mathematical modeling study

Syphilis transmission rates in Canadian Arctic communities are much higher than the national average, largely due to delays in screening and treatment caused by remoteness from lab facilities. This study used an individual-based model, informed by surveillance data, population surveys, and a field study, to evaluate the impact of introducing rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) at the point of care. The model, calibrated with data from 2017 to 2022, predicted that starting RDT use in 2023 could reduce new syphilis infections by 33% over 5 years and 37% over 10 years. The findings suggest that RDTs could greatly improve syphilis control in Arctic communities by enabling immediate testing and treatment.

Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of the individual-based model's structure for the natural history of syphilis and its testing and treatment cascade.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667193X24001728#fig1